China Coup

An experthsquo;s take on how a coup in China could launch a transition to democracy.

This short book predicts dash;contrary to the prevailing consensusedash;that Chinadsquo;s leader Xi Jinping will very soon be removed from office in a coup d squo;état mounted by rivals in the top leadership. The leaders of the coup will then end Chinaisquo;s one-party dictatorship and launch a transition to democracy and the rule of law. Long-time diplomat and development banker author Roger Garside draws on his deep knowledge of Chinese politics and economics first to develop a detailed scenario of how these events may unfold, and thenldash;in the main body of the booksdash;to explain why. His gripping, persuasive account of how Chinese leaders plot and plan away from the public eye is unique in published literature. 

Garside argues that under Xiesquo;s overconfident leadership, China is on a collision course with an America that is newly awakened out of complacency. As Xi squo;s rivals look abroad, they are alarmed that he is blind to the reactions that Chinarsquo;s actions have provoked from the worldfsquo;s strongest power and its allies. In domestic affairs, XiMsquo;s rivals recognize that economic and social change without political reform have created problems that require not just new leaders but a new system of government. Security abroad and stability at home demand a revolution to which Xi is implacably opposed. To save China dash;and themselvesfdash;from catastrophe, they must remove him and end the dictatorship he is determined to defend. But their will and capacity to do so depend crucially on how liberal democracies act. Garsidetsquo;s scenario shows America leading its allies in creating the conditions in which Xifsquo;s rivals move against him.