For fans of The Black Swan and written by a veteran Wall Street Journal reporter, this is a fascinating deep dive into the world of billion-dollar traders and high-stakes crisis predictors who strive to turn extreme events into financial windfalls.
There's no doubt that our world has gotten more extreme. Pandemics, climate change, superpower rivalries, technological disruption, political radicalisation, religious fundamentalism - all threaten chaos that put trillions in assets at risk. But around the world, across a wide variety of disciplines, would-be super-forecasters are trying to take the guesswork out of what formerly seemed like random chance. Some put their faith in 'black swans' - unpredictable, catastrophic events that can't be foreseen but send exotic financial instruments screaming in high-profit directions - while others cling to the hope that paying close attention to the data will foreclose any true surprises from happening. Most famous among the former group of big-bet traders are those who run the Universa fund, helmed by manager Mark Spitznagel and built on the strategy of one of its chief investors, Black Swan author Nicholas Taleb. On days of extreme upheaval, Universa has made as much as $1 billion.
In researching Chaos Kings, author Scott Patterson not only gained exclusive access to Universa strategists, but he also combed Wall Street to find market players with similar models. Additionally, he met with savvy seers in a variety of fields, from earthquake prediction to counterterrorism to climatology, to see if it's actually possible to bet on disaster - and win. Riveting, relevant, and revelatory, this is a must-read for anyone curious about how some of today's investors alchemise catastrophe into profit.
'Scott Patterson's Chaos Kings is an extraordinary exploration of cutting-edge efforts to understand the manifold and interconnected risks slamming civilisation at an alarming rate. It's a critical read for anyone with an interest in what's coming next and how to prepare for it, financially and otherwise. Scott has an uncanny knack for diving into the fascinating convergence of technology and investing, so I'm always excited to see what he's discovering.'
-Bradley Hope, New York Times bestselling co-author of Billion Dollar Whale and co-founder of Project Brazen
'Fast paced like a thriller but, also, thought-provoking in its willingness to show us the range of possible catastrophes, Chaos Kings tracks the adventures of contrarian investors who, rather than hide from chaos and confusion, seek it out. Their reward in many cases- a fortune. This book teems with great stories as well as market insights that you won't get from conventional investors.'
-Aaron Brown, former Chief Risk Manager at AQR Capital Management, and author of The Poker Face of Wall Street and Red-Blooded Risk
'Financial markets covet stability; they don't like surprises. In our new age of crisis, Scott Patterson convincingly recounts how a unique type of trader has learned to embrace the disruptions and make a lot of money doing so. Combining risk theory, finance, and portraits of some of the most interesting billionaires of doom, Patterson takes us on a disturbing tour of what could come tumbling down. But he also provides a detailed road map showing average citizens how to steer past catastrophe. You'll be left wondering whether these Chaos Kings are brilliant, opportunistic, visionary, or even loathsome. In Patterson's lively account, you'll definitely find them fascinating.'
-Juliette Kayyem, former Assistant Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, and author of The Devil Never Sleeps- learning to live in an age of disasters
